Tajikistan Dashboard
  • Overview
  • Risk Screening Overview
  • Climate Baseline
  • Natural Hazards
  • Climate Future
  • Impacts & Vulnerabilities
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Historical Climate Variability and Change
Historical Climate Trends
Mean annual temperature 0.3-1.2 °C since 1940  
Mean annual precipitation insignificant  
Number of rainy days decreased, most notably in Iskandrakul  
Number of 'hot' days increased, mostly in flat areas  
Historical Climate Data
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Key Precipitation Trends
  • The amount of precipitation in the Eastern Pamir reduced by 5 to 10%, and by 44% in Murghab. Precipitations similarly decreased in the southern lowland areas.
  • The annual precipitation pattern shows insignificant increase i.e. 8% for altitudes of up to 2500 m and insignificant decrease i.e. 3% in the mountainous area.
Key Temperature Trends
  • Smaller temperature increases have been noticed in higher altitudes and larger increases in lower altitudes.
  • Urbanization has caused the near surface area temperature of large cities has increased by 1.2-1.9°C

For detailed climate information on available country weather station data, please see the Historical Variability Tool.
Disaster Risk Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Tajikistan’s key vulnerable areas are the glacier-dependent river basins supplying hydro power and water resources for irrigation, fragile mountain ecosystems and isolated forest with mountainous and riverine terrain which makes it prone to landslides and land degradation.
Lack of emergency management capacity has increased Tajikistan’s sensitivity to natural hazards. The county’s worst drought was in the year 2000, which affected about 3 million people.
The county’s worst drought was in the year 2000, which affected about 3 million people. About 36% of Tajikistan is at risk of landslides and mudslides; in 2006, about 13,000 people were affected by flooding and landslides.
Around 20 percent of Tajikistan’s glaciers have retreated and some have already disappeared. By 2050, up to 30 percent more are likely to retreat or disappear. This development might increase the risk of sudden floods from glacier lake outburst floods. In the long run, glacier retreats and more severe and frequent droughts are likely to cause severe water shortage, posing threats to food security and the environment.
Given the water interdependence of countries in the Central Asia region, climate change is likely to aggravate conflicts over water resources. The downstream countries (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) have rising populations and are heavy water consumers for cotton production, whereas the upstream countries (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) want to use more water for electricity generation and farming.
Deterioration of irrigation and sanitation infrastructure and poor administrative water allocation systems also contribute to the region increasing water scarcity.
The Fergana basin, situated in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan is particularly vulnerable to climate change and prone to conflicts, because it is the most important area of agricultural cultivation and the most densely populated part of the region. More frequent and severe droughts may aggravate soil degradation and salinization of areas of Central Asiaas a result of poorly managed agricultural irrigation, clearing of forests, overgrazing, and unsustainable agricultural practices.
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Select a Layer Then Zoom to Explore.


storm surge
earthquake-triggered landslides
precipitation-triggered landslides
volcanic activity
Future Climate Projections
Future Climate Changes
Mean annual temperatures are projected to be warmer

2°C by 2050
Mean annual precipitation is projected to decrease
by 5% by 2050
'dry' days will increase
by 3 days
'cold' days will decrease
by 35 days
Future Trends
  • Due to the large variations in the model, most of the models do not agree with regard to future rainfall projections, however there is consensus that the current increasing trend of climate extremes will continue, causing longer and more frequent dry spells and more intense rainfall events.
  • The mean annual temperatures are projected to be warmer especially the months of December, January, February and June, July, August temperature are seen to be increased.
  • Winters are projected to be drier and summers wetter, which could result in both increased floods and droughts.

This chart shows how well the best available climate models capture the seasonal cycle of climate rainfall and/or temperature for the zone selected. The chart presents an envelope analysis of 16 climate model ensembles from the CMIP5 distribution used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report. When visualizing the mean climatology the thick line of the historical period represents a proxy measure of actual historical climate that can then be used to compare the historical cycle captured by climate models.

When users select the visualization of ‘Change’ (comparison of future versus historical), the chart depicts the ensemble median (black line), highest 10th percentile, and lowest 90th percentile for the anomalies. The visualization of the ensemble of all models is quite useful for understanding the potential range of climate model outcomes and a simple way to present the idea of climate model uncertainties.

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Global Climate Models
bcc_csm1_1 bcc_csm1_1_m ccsm4 cesm1_cam5
csiro_mk3_6_0 fio_esm gfdl_cm3 gfdl_esm2m
giss_e2_h giss_e2_r ipsl_cm5a_mr miroc_esm
miroc_esm_chem miroc5 mri_cgcm3 noresm1_m
access1_0 access1_3 bnu_esm canesm2
cesm1_bgc cmcc_cesm cmcc_cm cmcc_cms
cnrm_cm5 gfdl_esm2g hadgem2_ao hadgem2_cc
hadgem2_es inmcm4 ipsl_cm5a_lr ipsl_cm5b_lr
mpi_esm_lr mpi_esm_mr mri_esm1

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