This chart shows how well the best available climate models capture the seasonal cycle of climate rainfall and/or temperature for the zone selected. The chart presents an envelope analysis of 16 climate model ensembles from the CMIP5 distribution used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report. When visualizing the mean climatology the thick line of the historical period represents a proxy measure of actual historical climate that can then be used to compare the historical cycle captured by climate models.
When users select the visualization of ‘Change’ (comparison of future versus historical), the chart depicts the ensemble median (black line), highest 10th percentile, and lowest 90th percentile for the anomalies. The visualization of the ensemble of all models is quite useful for understanding the potential range of climate model outcomes and a simple way to present the idea of climate model uncertainties.